Pogačar Still Has a Three Week Problem

Tadej Pogačar and UAE Emirates ruled the Galibier but they’re not the kings of the Tour de France just yet.

For yellow jersey Pogačar and his great nemesis Jonas Vingegaard, the three-week Tour de France has only just begun.

“Everyone did five-star work today and we can do that again,” UAE Emirates director Joxean Fernández Matxin told Wielerflits after he orchestrated the team’s Alpine assault Tuesday.

“Whether the Tour has already been decided? No, of course not. That’s only in Nice,” Matxin said. “And it will be a very long time before we get there.”

UAE Emirates obliterated everyone on the hulking Hors Categorie Galibier with a brutal assertion of strength on Tuesday’s fourth stage.

Visma-Lease a Bike melted away from Vingegaard, Primož Roglič was on the ropes, and even the most dogged version of Remco Evenepoel struggled to hold on.

Yet Pogačar’s 45- and 50- second classification advantage over Evenepoel and Vingegaard respectively means nothing in a race that will be decided in the Pyrénées and Alps of week three.

“We came here believing we’d lose time in three of the first four stages, so to lose time on just one is pretty good in my opinion,” Vingegaard said after he was distanced on the fast downhill to the line Tuesday.

“We thought we might lose two minutes or more, so only 50 seconds behind is quite good,” Vingegaard said.

“Our time will come.”

What trajectories will the ‘Big 4’ follow?

There’s no doubt “Slovenian Slayer” Pogačar looks well on track for his historic quest for the Giro d’Italia-Tour de France double.

Imperious Pogačar is the puppetmaster of an armada of elite climbers.

UAE Emirates is living up to its super-team status with three riders in the top-10 with Juan Ayuso and João Almeida behind Pogačar in third and eighth. 2023 TdF podium finisher Adam Yates isn’t much further behind.

By contrast, Visma-Lease a Bike is a shadow of Jumbo-Visma and is ruing the loss of Sepp Kuss, Dylan Van Baarle, and Steven Kruijswijk.

Yet a largely benign second week will afford Pogačar’s Basque-battered, training-lite rivals the breathing space to ride themselves into the race, right on time for when mano-a-mano mountain battles will be just as decisive as collective team muscle.

“I’m slowly getting better, I’m still here,” Roglič insisted Tuesday after he was pressured on the Galibier.

The stage 7 time trial on Friday is the only true GC appointment before the mountains arrive en masse with stage 14 next weekend.

For Vingegaard, Roglič and Evenepoel, any creases in condition could be ironed out in time for when the race returns to the high peaks – although of course, there’s always the risk things get worse.

“It’s always a good thing when you finish second behind the best rider in the world,” Evenepoel said Tuesday. “It was a very good day for us. There was nothing to criticize.

“I feel like I’m getting better,” Evenepoel said after he led the chase behind Pogačar. “Now I’m already focusing on Friday’s time trial.”

Meanwhile for Pogačar, the great unknown of post-Giro d’Italia fatigue shadows every passing stage.

Visma vows to keep swinging: ‘We believe in our plan’

In true Pogačar fashion, he started his grand tour in sixth gear and came away rewarded.

Yet he’s done similar at the Tour twice before, only to be blown away by one disaster day in the back-half of the race.

Sure, the Visma-Lease a Bike of 2024 is not the Jumbo-Visma that tore Pogačar apart in 2022 and 2023 with blitz offenses from Kuss, Roglič, and Wout van Aert.

But the “Killer Bees” are promising it still has sting.

“I was doubting myself going into this Tour but it’s not like he was a lot stronger uphill,” Vingegaard said after the stage Tuesday. “I would have liked to close the gap instead of it opening. I would have liked to stay with him but that’s life.

“The Tour is long and we’ll do our best,” said the defending champion. “We know what to do. We believe in our plan, like in the last two years and we’ll see at the end of the Tour.”

Vingegaard will need to brush away any descending demons left from his Basque crash to ensure “The Bees” have venom ahead of the mountain-packed crescendo of Le Tour.

Re-measuring after the ‘race of truth’

The stage 7 time trial Friday will be a crucial measuring stick for who wears the maillot jaune in Nice later this month.

It’s not called “the race of truth” for nothing. There’s no better marker of physiological prowess and the ability to suffer than a lonely 25km against the clock.

Vingegaard hasn’t been able to train on the TT bike during his long comeback from injury like he would have wanted, but his history against Pogačar in grand tour time trials is telling.

Time trial world champion Evenepoel, who’s raced beyond rookie status to be “best of the rest” after four days of racing, could slash his 45-second deficit to Pogačar in half on Friday’s ~30 minute individual test.

“I think it’s not really decided who is where [on GC],” Pogačar said Tuesday after he donned his second yellow jersey of the 2024 Tour.

“For sure, you see the level a little bit,” he said. “But in three weeks some days can be better for some riders, and other days can be better for others.”

How the GC looks Friday will be the best barometer of the favorites we’ll get until the race hits the Pyrénées more than a week from now.

“Maybe someone wasn’t feeling great or super good today,” Pogačar said. “In three weeks, things can change a lot.”

It might have looked like Pogačar buried the Tour de France on Tuesday. But in reality, the race is only just getting started.